Teaser Talk 2024

[mosthated]

First of all I want to thank everyone at the RX for their time and generosity of getting picks out. Big thx to Serbone, 3pt dog, Johnny mags, g-man, TheRookie, pineapple, xeno, Willie and a bunch I've missed but look at their threads weekly. I've been a long time lurker no posts. Created new account cuz I can't even remember original email/sn.

Previously, I was a losing/break even player up until a few years ago when I switched my strategy to teasers. It is a well documented strategy of teasing teams thru 2 key numbers. I.e +.5 - + 3 to +7.5 - +8.5 or -7 - 9.5 to -1 - 2.5 using 2 team teasers of 6-7pts. U can search the net for well written in depth posts articles called Wong Teasers. Original Wong teasers cut out 3 and 7 as teasing numbers but it makes a documented negligible difference.

My big difference is using "Open teasers" so u can cherry pick week to week best picks. Each individual leg must win 73.9% or better to break even or positive value. But I will post that week to week it is very capable of doing.

My intent here is not only to post picks but start valuable discussions with those way more knowledgeable and skilled than I. Among what ive seen, really only Xeno uses teasers a lot. However, he breaks a few of my teaser rules like teasing thru 0 (lose a lot of value) and never teasing totals. He is good at it so each his own. Please feel free to add thoughts! GL to all of us.

 

[mosthated]

Following numbers are +1.5 thru +3
2018 59-18 76.62%
2019 52-18. 74.29%
2020. 60-16 78.95%
2021. 67-17. 79.76%
2022 61-21. 74.39%

-7.5 thru -9
2018. 18-3. 85.71%
2019. 13-4. 76.47%
2020. 25-3. 89.29%
2021 24-5. 82.76%
2022. 15-6. 71.43%

Sorry for format, new to this and done on phone

 

[mosthated]

2023 +1.5 thru 3
301-95. 76.01%

2023 -7.5 thru -9
86-25. 77.48%

I would never play every game that qualifies but if u did u still have a small margin of profit. This is where "open teasers" I feel give us an edge.

 

[mosthated]

Sorry above post was inaccurate. Above data collection was from 2018-2023 including playoffs with totals <49.

Data is hard to read on phone. Currently trying to find 2023 numbers.

 

[mosthated]

2023 data
+1.5 thru +3
80-35. 70.79%

-7.5 thru -9
12-6. 66.67%

Last year was hopefully a blip as it was only year to not pass -120 juice threshold of 73.9% win %.

 

[mosthated]

2024 results up to week 5. I am pulling this data from elsewhere so if I do I will have to compile week 6 data myself

+1.5 thru +3
31-6. 83.78%

-7.5 thru -9
0-5. 0%

All 6 pt teaser results 2024
Week 1. 4-3. 57.1%
Week 2. 6-2. 75.0%
Week 3. 6-2. 75.0%
Week 4 7-2. 77.7%
Week 5. 8-2. 80.0%

As u all know and see, lack of dominate teams will keep us skeptical of teasing down. Much parity in the NFL at this point in the season.

 

[mosthated]

2024 week 6 results
+1.5 thru +3
4-2. 66.67%

-7.5 thru -9
1-0. 100%
If u played Balti at -7 u got another win.

 

[mosthated]

Now that we got proof of concept out the way, we can get into week 7 meat.

Historically week 7 teasers are not good. Starting from 6 years ago week 7 is 17-8 at 68%. Under our threshold of 73.9% for -120 odds.

System uses closing numbers. But this is what currently qualifies.
Det +1.5
Kc +1.5
Pitt +1.5
AZ +1.5

Outside Wong teaser but I will sometimes tease +3 or -7 and sometimes +.5 or -9.5 using 7pt teaser. However, -140 juice for 7 pt thresholds raises minimum win % to be profitable.
If we add those in...
Buff -9.5
Hou +3
Mia +3
Nyg +3
Lar -7
Wash -9.5

Who do u guys like to tease across the key numbers?

 

[mosthated]

Sea +3 also qualifies.

NOR was +3 which would have lost.

 

[mosthated]

#1. Houston +9/detroit +7.5. 4 units
#2. Kc +8/open. 6pt teaser 4 units
#3. Kc +8/open. 6pt teaser 4 units
#4. Wash-2.5/open 7 pt teaser 5 units

 

[mosthated]

#5. Kc +8/sea +9 6pt teaser 8 units

 

[mosthated]

#6 nyg +9/lar -1 6pt teaser. 3 unkts

 

[mosthated]

#7 det +11.5/kc+12.5/az+11.5 10 pt teaser 4 units

 

[mosthated]

Week 7
3-1 +12.4 units

Still have 3 bullets in chamber with teasers #2, 3, 4. All but 1 pick won straight up as dogs.

 

[mosthated]

#8 LAR +9/open 6pt teaser 3 units

 

[mosthated]

Week 7, 6 pt teasers went 9-2 for 81.8% by my count. I managed to pick the only loser on Sunday with nyg. But still a very profitable week with my best bet teasing KC off of Reids bye week.

Week 8 possibilities last 6 years is 17-2 @ 89.47% historically one of the best weeks to tease.

LAR +3 won on tue, I still have a small open teaser on
Balt-9
TB +2.5
Wash +3
Nyj -7
Sea +3
Lac -7
Philly +3

3 team 10pt teaser possibilities
Det -11.5
Kc -10
Den -11
Tb +2.5

Looking like a tough week.
Currently for year
3-1 +12.4 units

Open teasers
#2. Kc +8/open. 6pt teaser 4 units
#3. Kc +8/open. 6pt teaser 4 units
#4. Wash-2.5/open 7 pt teaser 5 units
#8 LAR +9/open 6pt teaser 3 units

 

[mosthated]

#2 kc +8/Philly +9. FILL 6 pt teaser 4 units
#8 LAR +9/Philly +9 FILL 6 pt teaser 3 units

 

[mosthated]

I try to stay disciplined and stay within the system. But sometimes I'm just a degen. I can't see Pitt losing here.

#3 kc +8/ Pitt-0 FILL 6 pt teaser 4 units
#9. Pitt -0/OPEN 6 pt teaser 4 units
#10. Pitt -0/OPEN 6 pt teaser 2.units

 

[richporter]

hope your right about Pitt I have ML parlay and teaser as final leg and SF was in it as well.. reading your theories and learning some about teasers as well because I was schooled to the old school ways of betting football which is primarily was told straight wagers rarely buying pts but I've been learning there are many exceptions to this and I also think since nationwide legalization the lines may have become even tighter so things like teasers used effectively can be an excellent tool to exploit..

 

[mosthated]

hope your right about Pitt I have ML parlay and teaser as final leg and SF was in it as well.. reading your theories and learning some about teasers as well because I was schooled to the old school ways of betting football which is primarily was told straight wagers rarely buying pts but I've been learning there are many exceptions to this and I also think since nationwide legalization the lines may have become even tighter so things like teasers used effectively can be an excellent tool to exploit..

Thx for thoughts Rich. I agree with the lines, some weeks they feel real snug. I hope we can learn from each other. Let me know what teasers u like next week!